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NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON WARNS THAT AMERICA COULD SINK FROM AN ASTEROID IMPACT IN 2036
Asteroid Apophis 99942, currently orbiting the Sun, could submerge most of North America on impact.
TECH2 NEWS STAFFAUG 06, 2019 12:05:06 IST
In an episode of his podcast 'Cosmic Queries', astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson discussed the giant threat posed by giant asteroids heading the way of Earth. The podcast, also featuring science author and cosmochemist Natalie Starkey, explores the possibility of asteroid strikes billions of years ago that brought the building blocks of life to the Earth, and future impactors ending that life — at least humanity's — in one fell sweep.
Asteroids and meteors of all shapes and sizes zip past Earth almost every day. NASA estimates that hundreds of space debris and rocks burn in their entry into the planet’s atmosphere on a daily basis. Even asteroids that are larger, the size of cars, can strike the Earth at least once a year, creating a small amount of local damage. However, the real threat comes from asteroids that are ever bigger — kilometres-wide. These, astrophysicist Neil Tyson says, could spell humanity's end.
"It is an intriguing and under-appreciated fact that asteroids and comets may have been the bringers of life, if not the ingredients of life, but perhaps even life itself," he said. "And yet, they can also serve as harbingers of doom for the very life that they brought to the planet."
The American astrophysicist and author revealed a promising candidate for such a collision during a public lecture in San Francisco in 2008: a 370-metre-wide asteroid called Apophis 99942, which has been circling Earth for decades. This near-Earth space rock was at the heart of a brief spell of concern in December 2004, when early observations suggested a three percent probability it could hit Earth on 13 April 2029.
Scientists other than Tyson, too, warned that the effects could be catastrophic. Initial calculations of its orbit suggested a 2.7 percent possibility of impacting Earth in 2029. From data dig up from old astronomical images, NASA ruled out the 2029 impact scenario almost immediately, but a remote possibility of one in 2036 remained. This was possible because it was found that Apophis could pass through a "gravitational keyhole" — a tiny region in space where a planet's gravity is somewhat altered. Since its discovery, the keyhole's size has since determined as less than 600 metres wide, meaning that it is highly unlikely Apophis will pass through it at all.
"We know it won't hit Earth, we know it will be closer than the orbiting satellites. But there is a 600-mile zone – we call it the keyhole – and if the asteroid goes through the middle of that it will hit the Earth 13 years later...500 miles west of Santa Monica."
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NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON WARNS THAT AMERICA COULD SINK FROM AN ASTEROID IMPACT IN 2036
Asteroid Apophis 99942, currently orbiting the Sun, could submerge most of North America on impact.
TECH2 NEWS STAFFAUG 06, 2019 12:05:06 IST
In an episode of his podcast 'Cosmic Queries', astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson discussed the giant threat posed by giant asteroids heading the way of Earth. The podcast, also featuring science author and cosmochemist Natalie Starkey, explores the possibility of asteroid strikes billions of years ago that brought the building blocks of life to the Earth, and future impactors ending that life — at least humanity's — in one fell sweep.
Asteroids and meteors of all shapes and sizes zip past Earth almost every day. NASA estimates that hundreds of space debris and rocks burn in their entry into the planet’s atmosphere on a daily basis. Even asteroids that are larger, the size of cars, can strike the Earth at least once a year, creating a small amount of local damage. However, the real threat comes from asteroids that are ever bigger — kilometres-wide. These, astrophysicist Neil Tyson says, could spell humanity's end.
"It is an intriguing and under-appreciated fact that asteroids and comets may have been the bringers of life, if not the ingredients of life, but perhaps even life itself," he said. "And yet, they can also serve as harbingers of doom for the very life that they brought to the planet."
The American astrophysicist and author revealed a promising candidate for such a collision during a public lecture in San Francisco in 2008: a 370-metre-wide asteroid called Apophis 99942, which has been circling Earth for decades. This near-Earth space rock was at the heart of a brief spell of concern in December 2004, when early observations suggested a three percent probability it could hit Earth on 13 April 2029.
Scientists other than Tyson, too, warned that the effects could be catastrophic. Initial calculations of its orbit suggested a 2.7 percent possibility of impacting Earth in 2029. From data dig up from old astronomical images, NASA ruled out the 2029 impact scenario almost immediately, but a remote possibility of one in 2036 remained. This was possible because it was found that Apophis could pass through a "gravitational keyhole" — a tiny region in space where a planet's gravity is somewhat altered. Since its discovery, the keyhole's size has since determined as less than 600 metres wide, meaning that it is highly unlikely Apophis will pass through it at all.
"We know it won't hit Earth, we know it will be closer than the orbiting satellites. But there is a 600-mile zone – we call it the keyhole – and if the asteroid goes through the middle of that it will hit the Earth 13 years later...500 miles west of Santa Monica."
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If it did hit Earth, the impact of Apophis 99942 will submerge vast swathes of the North American continent, Tyson claims in the lecture.
Tyson went on to explain how an impact in the ocean would trigger a tsunami, "If it goes through the centre, it will plunge down into the Pacific Ocean to a depth of three miles, at which point it explodes, caveatting the Pacific in a hole that's three miles wide. The 5 km-high wall collapses, falling back against itself and rising high into the atmosphere before falling back down to the ocean, generating tsunami waves.
"So now you make a cavity a second time. This cycle takes about 50 seconds, you can calculate it," Tyson added. "All the artificial stuff, all the houses, factories, they get churned into the force that sandblasts the entire west coast of North America clean."
Apophis 99942 will likely not hit Earth in 2036, according to NASA. But if it does, it would land somewhere in the eastern hemisphere and release 1,600 megatonnes of energy. To compare, the Krakatau volcano eruption in 1883, which caused destruction to 70 percent of the island and its surrounding archipelago as it collapsed, released only 200 megatonnes.
Dr Tyson said the world would know on 12 April 2029 if the asteroid had "threaded the keyhole", leaving several Americans a headstart on finding a new home.